Talk of vaccinations and vaccination targets
“When it came to vaccination rates there was no magic number at present.
"I think we need to aim to get as close to 100 percent as we possibly can. We're not going to get to 100 percent but we should be aiming to get as high as possible and the higher vaccine coverage we get the better position we'll be in, the more options we'll have and the better protected we'll be against the health impacts of Covid-19."(Professor Michael Plank)
Countries around the world are starting to imagine a future living with Covid-19 as vaccination benchmarks are reached.
But is there a magic number?
The Scandinavian country, Denmark, has now lifted restrictions after vaccination rates passed 80 percent of those 12 and over.
Evolutionary virologist Dr Jemma Geoghegan, a senior lecturer at the University of Otago, said the idea of vaccine benchmarks had to be treated with caution.
"The data out of the UK suggests that 95 percent of the population have some level of immunity to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. They're still experiencing around 150 deaths a day from this coronavirus and this is during summer."
The British experience might provide clues for how the virus would behave here if restrictions were lifted in NZ even after high vaccine coverage.
If the current death rate in the UK was comparable to what New Zealand might expect, it would translate to more than 3500 deaths a year in New Zealand.
That would be more than car crashes, suicides, breast cancer, prostate cancer, melanoma and diabetes - combined.
Denmark had recorded 2600 deaths from Covid-19 and was still seeing daily deaths.
Otago University public health expert Professor Nick Wilson said we have to be prepared for some restrictions until at least pre-teens could be vaccinated, and potentially beyond.
"Things like long Covid are potentially going to be very serious conditions, there's even some risk they're going to be life-long. So when you're thinking about those sort of things it does mean that the amount of health loss in a society could really mount up."
It was why some changes to behaviour were likely to remain for the foreseeable future, with only the development of a vaccine that provided sterilising immunity allowing for a return to 2019 normality, he said.
"It may be we're in the long haul for keeping the elimination strategy until we have a sterilising vaccine - it's completely effective, like measles vaccine, and you get no transmission. So then you would be able to get to herd immunity with high coverage and you wouldn't need to have other control measures.
"So the world really should be putting an enormous amount of effort in - and it is, we've made some great strides with vaccine technology, but that is the vaccine we want. A completely effective one where there is zero transmission when someone gets exposed."
None of the current crop of vaccines fit that bill.
Professor Wilson said New Zealand was not the only area pursuing an elimination strategy as China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and several Australian states were also going that route.
Covid-19 modeller Professor Michael Plank said, simply put, when it came to vaccination rates there was no magic number at present.
"I think we need to aim to get as close to 100 percent as we possibly can. We're not going to get to 100 percent but we should be aiming to get as high as possible and the higher vaccine coverage we get the better position we'll be in, the more options we'll have and the better protected we'll be against the health impacts of Covid-19."
Separately, the Health Ministries department of the South Pacific Division (SPD) of the Seventh-day Adventist Church (SDA) has developed a series of videos in response to queries about COVID-19 vaccination.
The “Understanding COVID-19” series, which features medical and theological perspectives, is designed to support members in making an informed choice about vaccination and counter vaccine misinformation.
“The Seventh-day Adventist Church has a long tradition of promoting healthy living through good nutrition, physical activity, fresh air, temperance, water, sunshine, abstinence from alcohol and smoking, and trusting in God,” SPD Health Ministries strategy leader Geraldine Przybylko said. “These principles are more important than ever during COVID-19 to strengthen our immune system. At this critical time, we wish to support government initiatives aimed at preserving life and restoring our communities to good health.”
Sources – Radio New Zealand and Solomon Times Online.
Yours sincerely
Frank Short
